Seasonal Outlooks (March – May 2014)

Overview

The data for the global temperature and precipitation outlooks are provided by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The IRI was established as a cooperative agreement between NOAA’s Climate Program Office and Columbia University. It is part of The Earth Institute, Columbia University. The data for these maps are constructed primarily from several climate models, with some minor tweaks by climatologists.

The data for the U.S. drought outlook are provided by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Temperature Outlook

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Temperature Outlook

Dataset Name: 20140228 EarthNow: Global Temperature Outlook (Mar – May 2014)
    • What does RED mean on the map? The red shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “warmer than normal”, than “cooler than normal”, or “normal”.
    • What does BLUE mean on the map? The blue shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “cooler than normal”, than “warmer than normal”, or “normal”.
    • WHITE indicates areas that have a higher probability of being “normal” than “cooler/warmer than normal” and also areas where the chances for being cooler than normal, warmer than normal, and normal are equal.
    • It should be noted that areas in the “warmer than normal” region may still have cooler than normal days, and may not be “hot”. This outlook only suggests that after the three months are over, those areas in the “warmer than normal” region are more likely to have experienced warmer than normal average temperatures.
Precipitation outlook

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Precipitation Outlook

Dataset Name: 20140228 EarthNow: Global Precipitation Outlook (Mar – May 2014)
    • What does GREEN mean on the map? The green shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “wetter than normal”, than “drier than normal”, or “normal”.
    • What does BROWN mean on the map? The brown shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “drier than normal”, than “wetter than normal”, or “normal”.
    • WHITE indicates areas that have a higher probability of being “normal” than “drier/wetter than normal” and also areas where the chances for being drier than normal, wetter than normal, and normal are equal.
    • It should be noted that areas in the “wetter than normal” region may still have drier than normal days, and may not be “flooded”. This outlook only suggests that after the three months are over, those areas in the “wetter than normal” region are more likely to have experienced wetter than normal average rainfall.
Drought outlook

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U.S. Drought Outlook

Dataset Name: 20140228 EarthNow: U.S. Drought Outlook (Mar – May 2014)
  • This dataset shows the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. drought outlook for March – May 2014
Where do I find the datasets?
  • First, check your SOS system to make sure it’s not already in the EarthNow category.
  • If not, you can download the datasets and playlist files from this FTP Site.
  • Then download and use playlist files at the top of the page (or create your own) and make sure they are in /home/sosrc.
  • More detailed information here
For more information:
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/
Credits:
EarthNow Team
NOAA
References:
IRI Seasonal Forecasts, http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Drought Outlook. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Category: Global Seasonal Outlook, U.S. Outlook

1 Comment

One Response to Seasonal Outlooks (March – May 2014)

  1. Wayne Justice says:

    Lets not forget that increased atmospheric water vapour creates no net increase in heat energy. The air warms, the water cools by an equal amount. The sea levels have been rising since the last ice age at about 1.2 to 1.8 mm per year. If the seas are expanding, you would expect, like a spinning ice skater stretching her arms out, for the Earth to slow down. But since
    1950, the Earth’s rotation is now faster, not slower. About 80% of the ocean’s temperature is close to the freezing point of salt water. If it cools or warms more, the ocean will still expand either way. So, rising sea levels may or may not be a sign of global warming.

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