Seasonal Outlooks (December 2013 – February 2014)

SOS Playlists

SOS Playlist

Overview

The data for the global temperature and precipitation outlooks are provided by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The IRI was established as a cooperative agreement between NOAA’s Climate Program Office and Columbia University. It is part of The Earth Institute, Columbia University. The data for these maps are constructed primarily from several climate models, with some minor tweaks by climatologists.

The data for the U.S. drought outlook are provided by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

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Temperature Outlook

Dataset Name: 20131126 EarthNow: Global Temperature Outlook (Dec 2013 – Feb 2014)
    • What does RED mean on the map? The red shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “warmer than normal”, than “cooler than normal”, or “normal”.
    • What does BLUE mean on the map? The blue shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “cooler than normal”, than “warmer than normal”, or “normal”.
    • WHITE indicates areas that have a higher probability of being “normal” than “cooler/warmer than normal” and also areas where the chances for being cooler than normal, warmer than normal, and normal are equal.
    • It should be noted that areas in the “warmer than normal” region may still have cooler than normal days, and may not be “hot”. This outlook only suggests that after the three months are over, those areas in the “warmer than normal” region are more likely to have experienced warmer than normal average temperatures.
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Precipitation Outlook

Dataset Name: 20131126 EarthNow: Global Precipitation Outlook (Dec 2013 – Feb 2014)
    • What does GREEN mean on the map? The green shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “wetter than normal”, than “drier than normal”, or “normal”.
    • What does BROWN mean on the map? The brown shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “drier than normal”, than “wetter than normal”, or “normal”.
    • WHITE indicates areas that have a higher probability of being “normal” than “drier/wetter than normal” and also areas where the chances for being drier than normal, wetter than normal, and normal are equal.
    • It should be noted that areas in the “wetter than normal” region may still have drier than normal days, and may not be “flooded”. This outlook only suggests that after the three months are over, those areas in the “wetter than normal” region are more likely to have experienced wetter than normal average rainfall.
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U.S. Drought Outlook

Dataset Name: 20131126 EarthNow: U.S. Drought Outlook (Dec 2013 – Feb 2014)
  • This dataset shows the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. drought outlook for November 2013 – January 2014
  • ***Note that the globe is only split in HALF this month, based on some feedback from the SOS Network. Let us know what you think!
Where do I find the datasets?
  • First, check your SOS system to make sure it’s not already in the EarthNow category.
  • If not, you can download the datasets and playlist files from this FTP Site.
  • Then download and use playlist files at the top of the page (or create your own) and make sure they are in /home/sosrc.
  • More detailed information here
Helpful Resources for More Information
Credits:
EarthNow Team
NOAA
References:
IRI Seasonal Forecasts, http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=944&PageID=0&cached=true&mode=2&userID=2
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Drought Outlook. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Category: Seasonal Outlook

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