Global Seasonal Outlook (August – October 2013)

Posted on 2013, July 26 by EarthNow Team

SOS Playlists

SOS Playlist

Overview

The data for the global temperature and precipitation outlooks are provided by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The IRI was established as a cooperative agreement between NOAA’s Climate Program Office and Columbia University. It is part of The Earth Institute, Columbia University. The data for these maps are constructed primarily from several climate models, with some minor tweaks by climatologists.

Temperature Outlook

Temperature Outlook

Temperature Outlook

Dataset Name: 20130726 EarthNow: Global Temperature Outlook (August-October 2013)
Still Map Image
    • What does RED mean on the map? The red shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “warmer than normal”, than “cooler than normal”, or “normal”.
    • What does BLUE mean on the map? The blue shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “cooler than normal”, than “warmer than normal”, or “normal”.
    • WHITE indicates areas that have a higher probability of being “normal” than “cooler/warmer than normal” and also areas where the chances for being cooler than normal, warmer than normal, and normal are equal.
    • It should be noted that areas in the “warmer than normal” region may still have cooler than normal days, and may not be “hot”. This outlook only suggests that after the three months are over, those areas in the “warmer than normal” region are more likely to have experienced warmer than normal average temperatures.
Precipitation Outlook

Precipitation Outlook

Precipitation Outlook

Dataset Name: 20130726 EarthNow: Global Precipitation Outlook (August-October 2013)
Still Map Image
    • What does GREEN mean on the map? The green shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “wetter than normal”, than “drier than normal”, or “normal”.
    • What does BROWN mean on the map? The brown shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “drier than normal”, than “wetter than normal”, or “normal”.
    • WHITE indicates areas that have a higher probability of being “normal” than “drier/wetter than normal” and also areas where the chances for being drier than normal, wetter than normal, and normal are equal.
    • It should be noted that areas in the “wetter than normal” region may still have drier than normal days, and may not be “flooded”. This outlook only suggests that after the three months are over, those areas in the “wetter than normal” region are more likely to have experienced wetter than normal average rainfall.
Where do I find the datasets?
  • First, check your SOS system to make sure it’s not already in the EarthNow category.
  • If not, you can download the datasets and playlist files from this FTP Site.
  • Then download and use playlist files at the top of the page (or create your own) and make sure they are in /home/sos/sosrc or /home/sosdemo/sosrc.
  • More detailed information here
Helpful Resources for More Information
Credits:
EarthNow Team
NOAA
References:
IRI Seasonal Forecasts, http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=944&PageID=0&cached=true&mode=2&userID=2
NOAA Climate Prediciton Center, Drought Outlook. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Category: Global Seasonal Outlook

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June 2013 Climate Digest

Posted on 2013, July 19 by EarthNow Team
June 2013 Climate Digest

June 2013 Climate Digest

SOS Playlists

SOS Playlist
SOS AutoRun/Audio Playlist

Overview

Each month, we will provide information regarding the previous month’s climate. Overall, preliminary data analysis suggests that June 2013 was the 5th warmest on record, tied with 2006 (since 1880).  Major stories include drought in the United States, Tropical Storm Andrea, and the continued absence of El Niño or La Niña.

June 2013 Highlights

June 2013 Highlights

Highlights Dataset

Dataset: 20130719 EarthNow: June 2013 Highlights
Dataset: 20130719 EarthNow: AUDIO June 2013 Highlights
Full Map Image
      • This dataset shows some of the major June weather and climate highlights from the National Climatic Data Center’s (NCDC) monthly global climate analysis, and serves as an overview of what can be discussed in the datasets that follow. Highlights are noted below with more information.
      • Alaska: Warmest June on record (since 1918).
      • Western United States: 44% of U.S. in drought. Very dry during January-June 2013 period. California experienced direst Jan-Jun. period on record.
      • Tropical Storm Andrea: June 5-9, Max. Winds: 100 km/hr. Minor storm surge, heavy rain and tornadoes, along Florida Gulf Coast.
      • Spain: Spain experienced its coolest June since 1997.
      • Norway: Wettest June on record (since 1900)
      • India & Nepal: Northern India and Nepal experience heavy monsoonal rains, resulting in landslides and flooding. Over 5,000 fatalities were been reported.
      • Arctic Sea Ice Extent: Eleventh smallest on record, at 2.6% below the 1981-2010 average.
      • Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: Third largest on record, at 5.2% above the 1981-2010 average.
Global Temperature Differences

Global Temperature Differences

Global Temperature Anomalies Dataset

Dataset: 20130719 EarthNow: June 2013 Temperature Anomaly
Dataset: 20130719 EarthNow: AUDIO June 2013 Temperature Anomaly
Full Map Image
  • Using the real-time Monthly Temperature Anomalies dataset is a great way to convey where some of the warmer and cooler than average areas were in June, including those mentioned above in the highlights.
  • The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for June was the 5th warmest on record, tied with 2006 (since 1880).
SST Differences

SST Differences

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Dataset

Dataset: 20130719 EarthNow: June 2013 SST Anomaly
Dataset: 20130719 EarthNow: AUDIO June 2013 SST Anomaly
Full Map Image
    • The real-time sea surface temperature anomaly dataset is a great way to visualize the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the eastern tropical Pacific ocean. For June 2013, these waters were only slightly below average, indicating an ENSO Neutral period. The Climate Prediction Center anticipates a continued neutral period through at least the northern hemisphere Summer.
    • Also of note, the Atlantic ocean temperatures in the development region for tropical cyclones was above normal. This can indicate the potential for an active hurricane season, which just started on June 1.
    • Remember that the blues indicate cooler than average temperatures and reds indicate warmer than average temperatures (white: average).
    • The Climate Prediction Center expects the neutral conditions to prevail through at least the Northern Hemisphere Summer.
Snow and Ice

Snow and Ice

Snow and Ice Cover Dataset

Dataset: 20130719 EarthNow: June 2013 Snow and Ice Cover
Dataset: 20130719 EarthNow: AUDIO June 2013 Snow and Ice Cover
Full Map Image
  • Aside from helping to illustrate seasonal changes, the real-time Snow and Ice Cover dataset is a great way to convey sea ice change through time, including discussing how the current sea ice extent compares to other noteworthy years.
  • The Arctic sea ice extent in May was the tenth smallest on record. The extent was 2.2% below the 1981-2010 average.
  • In Antarctica, the sea ice extent was the fifth largest on record, at 6.3% above the 1981-2010 average.
Where do I find the datasets?
  • First, check your SOS system to make sure it’s not already in the EarthNow category.
  • If not, you can download the datasets and playlist files from this FTP Site.
  • Then download and use playlist files at the top of the page (or create your own) and make sure they are in /home/sos/sosrc or /home/sosdemo/sosrc.
  • More detailed information here
Helpful Resources for More Information
Credits:
EarthNow Team
NOAA
References:
NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for June 2013, published online July 2013, retrieved on July 18, 2013 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/.
Category: Climate Digest

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Causes and Effects of Tropical Widening

Posted on 2013, July 16 by EarthNow Team
Tropical Widening

Tropical Widening

SOS Playlists

SOS Playlist
SOS AutoRun/Audio Playlist

Overview

With the help of satellite data, scientists studying the Tropics and other climate zones have been tracking changes over time.  Here the Tropics is highlighted in orange. Recent studies show the Tropical zone is expanding toward the poles. Why do we care if the Tropics expands? This widening spreads Tropical diseases to new places and drought to the Subtropics, where much of the world’s population lives.

About the Dataset

Dataset Name: 20130715 EarthNow: Tropical Widening
Audio Dataset Name: 20130715 EarthNow: AUDIO Tropical Widening
  • The first part of the visualization introduces the general locations of the tropics (orange), as well as the basics of atmospheric circulation, including the trade winds and Hadley cell circulation.
  • Following this introduction, total column ozone data is shown for several seasons and ends with conveying how that data is used to identify the boundary between the Tropics and Subtropics. The measurable change in total column ozone between the Tropics and Subtropics is used to identify the boundary between the two.
  • After explaining how scientists determine the boundary, we are shown average the boundary of the tropics during the 1980-1984 time frame (blue lines, orange shading), and then the average boundary of the tropics during the 2008-2012 time frame (red lines, orange shading).
  • We can see how the tropics boundary has expanded poleward.
  • The effects of this expansion is then conveyed, the primary effects being increased drought in the subtropics, as well as mosquito-borne disease.

The Impact

The Tropics is the area around the equator where prevailing trade winds blow from east to west. Trade winds are caused by the Sun heating the equator more than the North and South Poles. When the Sun heats land and ocean around the equator, warm, moist air rises creating clouds, storms and rain. The air loses heat and moisture through rainfall.

At the top of the atmosphere, the air moves away from the equator toward the poles, sinking as drier air in the Subtropics. There we find dry zones and deserts in areas where the prevailing surface wind doesn’t travel over water to replenish its moisture.

From data collected by satellites and weather balloons, scientists have measured widening of the Tropics by about 10 degrees of latitude over the past 30 years. These data show a greenhouse gas called ozone made of three oxygen atoms. Satellites measure ozone between the ground and the top of the atmosphere, or total column ozone. High amounts are shown in dark blue, low amounts in light blue to white. Ozone at the top of the atmosphere forms naturally and is good, shielding us from the Sun’s ultraviolet rays that cause sunburn. Bad ozone near the ground is caused by pollution and damages plants and people’s lungs. The measurable change in total column ozone between the Tropics and Subtropics is used to identify the boundary.

A change in the extent of the Tropics has occurred over the last few decades. The northern edge of the Tropics has shifted northward by an average of 4 degrees while the southern edge has shifted southward by about 6 degrees. That’s a widening of about 10 degrees over 30 years.

It might not look like much, but it has significant impact. Widening the Tropical zone poleward impacts storm tracks and the water cycle, affecting places were many people live.
Increased drought is likely in places such as the southwestern United States, the Middle East, and southern Australia. Additionally, tropical diseases such as the mosquito-borne dengue fever are starting to spread poleward, as recent outbreaks in Florida, Portugal and even Russia have been reported.

Understanding how climate zones are shifting will guide decisions about how to address changes, from where to plant crops to developing vaccines.

Where do I find the datasets?
  • First, check your SOS system to make sure it’s not already in the EarthNow category.
  • If not, you can download the datasets and playlist files from this FTP Site.
  • Then download and use playlist files at the top of the page (or create your own) and make sure they are in /home/sos/sosrc or /home/sosdemo/sosrc.
  • More detailed information here
  • Magic Planet version
Credits:
EarthNow Team
NOAA
Data: Robert Hudson, Dept. of Atmospheric and Ocean Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
Reviewer: Dian Seidel, NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD
References:
Hudson, R.D., Measurements of the movement of jet streams at mid-latitudes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, 1979-2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 7797-7808, 2012 R.D. Hudson, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 30 August 2012. http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/7797/2012/
Siedel, D.J., et al., Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate, Nature Geoscience, 2007. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n1/full/ngeo.2007.38.html
Category: Climate
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