U.S. Seasonal Outlook (February – April 2013)

SOS Playlists

SOS Playlist

Overview

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects a large area extending Mississippi up through Nevada, as well as the Northeast, to be warmer than normal. The northern plains, Pacific Northwest, and southern Alaska are expected to be cooler than normal. For more information about this, the precipitation outlook, and the drought outlook for the United States, read on!

U.S. Temperature Outlook

U.S. Temperature Outlook

U.S. Temperature Outlook

Dataset Name: 20130128 EarthNow: U.S. Temperature Outlook (February-April 2013)
Still Map Image
    • Sea Surface Temperatures in the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) region suggest continued neutral conditions, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
    • For the February – April period, warmer than normal temperatures are expected for the northeastern, south-central, and southwest United States. (Red)
    • Cooler than normal temperatures can be expected in the northern plains, Pacific Northwest, and southern Alaska. (Blue)
    • All other locations have equal chances of being warmer or cooler than normal. (White)
    • Outlook by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
    • In its forecasts, the CPC uses a wide variety of models in conjunction with looking at climate variables (like El Niño).
    • It should be noted that areas in the “warmer than normal” region may still have cooler than normal days. This outlook only suggests that after the three months are over, those areas in the “warmer than normal” region are more likely to have experienced warmer than normal average temperatures.
U.S. Precipitation Outlook

U.S. Precipitation Outlook

U.S. Precipitation Outlook

Dataset Name: 20130128 EarthNow: U.S. Precipitation Outlook (February-April 2013)
Still Map Image
  • For the next three months (February – April), drier than normal conditions are expected for the southwest U.S., extending eastward through the Gulf coast states. (Brown)
  • Wetter than normal conditions are expected for much of the Midwest, extending into North Dakota. (Green)
  • All other locations have equal chances of being wetter or drier than normal. (White)
  • Outlook by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
  • In its forecasts, the CPC uses a wide variety of models in conjunction with looking at climate variables (like El Niño).
  • It should be noted that areas be in the “drier than normal” region may still have rainy or snowy days. This outlook only suggests that after the three months are over, those areas in the “drier than normal” region are more likely to have experienced drier than normal averages.
U.S. Drought Outlook

U.S. Drought Outlook

U.S. Drought Outlook

Dataset Name: 20130128 EarthNow: U.S. Drought Outlook (February-April 2013)
Still Map Image
    • With so much of the country experiencing drought conditions, and with the potential for severe social and economic impacts, it’s important to provide some insight into the seasonal drought outlook for the United States.
    • This dataset shows the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. drought outlook for February – April 2013.
    • Much of the central and western parts of the U.S. are expected to have drought conditions persist or even intensify. Unfortunately, these are the areas with the most agricultural interest.
    • The southeastern U.S. will continue to have drought, with some improvement possible.
    • The only areas expected to have some improvement are the northern plains and western Great Lakes, likely due to winter precipitation.
Where do I find the datasets?
  • First, check your SOS system to make sure it’s not already in the EarthNow category.
  • If not, you can download the dataset and playlist files from this FTP Site.
  • Then download and use playlist file(s) at the top of the page (or create your own) and make sure they are in /home/sos/sosrc or /home/sosdemo/sosrc.
Helpful Resources for More Information
Credit(s):
Visualizations: CIMSS, University of Wisconsin – Madison
Writing: CIMSS, University of Wisconsin – Madison
NOAA
References:
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 3-month Outlook Discussion, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 3-month Outlook Maps, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Category: U.S. Outlook
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December 2012 Climate Digest

December 2012 Cliimate Digest Video

December 2012 Climate Digest • iPad Video

SOS Playlists

SOS Playlist

Overview

Each month, we will provide information regarding the previous month’s climate. Overall, preliminary data analysis suggests that December 2012 was the 18th warmest on record (since 1880).  Major stories include warmer than normal United States and cooler than normal Eurasia. More detailed information follows.

December 2012 Highlights

December 2012 Highlights • iPad Video

Highlights Dataset

Dataset Name: 20130117 EarthNow: December 2012 Highlights
Full Map Image
    • This dataset shows some of the major December weather and climate highlights from the National Climatic Data Center’s (NCDC) monthly global climate analysis, and serves as an overview of what can be discussed in the datasets that follow. Highlights are noted below with more information.
    • United States: Tenth warmest December on record (since 1895).
    • Argentina: Severe storms and flooding.
    • Australia: Fourth highest maximum temperature on record.
    • Eurasia: Cooler-than-normal temperature for much of eastern Europe and northern Asia. Temperatures in Russia were 10-15˚C below average, creating the coolest winter since 1938. Norway had its 11th coolest December since 1900.
    • United Kingdom: Heavy rain resulted in the wettest December since 1999.
    • Arctic Sea Ice Extent: Second smallest on record, at 8.7% below the 1979-2000 average.
    • Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: 16th smallest (18th largest) on record, at 1.5% above the 1979-2000 average.
December 2012 Global Temperatures

December 2012 Global Temperatures • iPad Video

Global Temperature Anomalies Dataset

Dataset Name: 20130117 EarthNow: RT Monthly Temperature Anomalies
Full Map Image
  • Using the real-time Monthly Temperature Anomalies dataset is a great way to convey where some of the warmer and cooler than average areas were in December, including those mentioned above in the highlights.
  • The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for December was the 18th warmest on record (since 1880).
December 2012 Sea Surface Anomalies

December 2012 Sea Surface Anomalies • iPad Video

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Dataset

Dataset Name: 20130117 EarthNow: RT SST Anomalies
Full Map Image
  • The real-time sea surface temperature anomaly dataset is a great way to visualize the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the eastern tropical Pacific ocean. This helps show the moderate water waters, indicating an ENSO Neutral period.
  • Remember that the blues indicate cooler than average temperatures and reds indicate warmer than average temperatures (white: average).
December Snow and Ice Extent

December Snow and Ice Extent • iPad Video

Snow and Ice Cover Dataset

Dataset Name: 20130117 EarthNow: RT Snow and Ice Cover
Full Map Image
  • Aside from helping to illustrate seasonal changes, the real-time Snow and Ice Cover dataset is a great way to convey sea ice change through time, including discussing how the current sea ice extent compares to other noteworthy years.
  • The Arctic sea ice extent in December was the second smallest on record. The extent was 8.7% below the 1979-2000 average.
  • In Antarctica, the sea ice extent was the 16 smallest (18th largest) on record, at 1.5% above the 1979-2000 average.
Where do I find the datasets?
  • First, check your SOS system to make sure it’s not already in the EarthNow category.
  • If not, you can download the datasets and playlist files from this FTP Site.
  • Then download and use playlist files at the top of the page (or create your own) and make sure they are in /home/sos/sosrc or /home/sosdemo/sosrc.
Helpful Resources for More Information
Credits:
Visualizations/Website: CIMSS, University of Wisconsin – Madison
Writing: CIMSS, University of Wisconsin – Madison; CICS-MD, University of Maryland
NOAA Visualization Lab
NOAA
References:
NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for December 2012, published online January 2013, retrieved on January 17, 2013 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/12.
Category: Climate Digest
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How does the Arctic Affect Extreme Weather?

Arctic Amplification Video

Arctic Amplification

Overview

Over the past several decades, the number of extreme weather events has increased. During those same years, the Arctic has warmed twice as fast as the rest of the Northern Hemisphere. The rapid Arctic warming is referred to as Arctic Amplification, and research suggests that it may be blamed for some of the extreme weather episodes.

NOAA SOS Catalog link
http://sos.noaa.gov/Datasets/dataset.php?id=573

About the Dataset

Dataset Name: 20130104 EarthNow: Arctic Amplification
Still Map Image
  • This SOS visualizations, starts by showing the minimum extent of Arctic sea ice in 1980, along with a jet stream animation, representative of the patterns in the 1980s.
  • The jet stream is colored red and blue, indicating warm air and cold air movement, respectively.
  • The visualization then transitions into showing the minimum extent of Arctic sea ice in 2012, the lowest on record, and a jet stream pattern typical of today. The 1980 ice and previous jet stream pattern are now pink for comparison.
  • You will notice that the jet stream typical of today is more amplified and has a slower west to east progression.
  • There is also a Picture-In-Picture (PIP) near the end of the visualization, showing four the main kinds of extreme weather associated with Arctic Amplification (Droughts, Floods, Cold Spells, and Heat Waves).

About the jet stream

The temperature differences between the cold poles and warm tropics, combined with the Earth’s rotation, cause air to flow eastward fastest over the midlatitudes, where most of us live. This is called the jet stream.

Approaching North America, the jet stream moves northward over the Rocky Mountains, then dips southward forming a trough toward the East Coast, then northward as a ridge over the Atlantic Ocean. It continues in a similar long wave pattern over Europe, Asia, and the Pacific. Storms develop and track along the jet stream, pushing cold air south and warm air north.

What is Arctic amplification?

During the past few decades, general warming in the atmosphere has accelerated Arctic ice melt, leading to more seasonal ice cover which is not as white and absorbs more sunlight, in turn causing more warming. The Arctic has warmed twice as fast as the rest of the Northern Hemisphere. This is Arctic Amplification.

Effects of Arctic amplification

Scientists have observed that the reduced temperature difference between the North Pole and tropics is associated with slower west-to-east jet stream movement and a greater north-south dip in its path. This pattern causes storms to stall and intensify, rather than move away as they normally used to do. At midlatitudes, more extreme weather results from this new pattern, including droughts, floods, colds spells, and heat waves.

Where do I find the dataset?
Helpful Resources for More Information
Credits:
Visualizations: CIMSS, University of Wisconsin – Madison
Script/Writing: CICS-MD, University of Maryland; CIMSS, University of Wisconsin – Madison
Website: CIMSS, University of Wisconsin – Madison
Audio Narration: Sam Kopper, Locomote Media
Data: NSIDC, NOAA
Research: Jennifer A. Francis (Rutgers University) and Stephen J. Vavrus (UW-Madison)
References:
Francis, J.A., and Vavrus, S.J. (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes, Geosphysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, L06801, doi: 10.1029/2012GL051000
Category: Climate
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