Seasonal Outlooks (June, July and August 2019)

Overview

The data for the global temperature and precipitation outlooks are provided by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).  The IRI was established as a cooperative agreement between NOAA’s Climate Program Office and Columbia University. It is part of The Earth Institute, Columbia University. These maps are constructed primarily with data from NOAA climate models, with some minor tweaks by climatologists.

Temperature Outlook

  • What does RED mean on the map? The red shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “warmer than normal”, than “normal”, or “cooler than normal”.
  • What does BLUE mean on the map? The blue shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “cooler than normal”, than “normal”, or “warmer normal”.
  • WHITE indicates areas that have a higher probability of being “normal” than “cooler or warmer than normal” and also, areas where the chances for being cooler than normal, warmer than normal, and normal are equal.

It should be noted that areas in the “warmer than normal” region may still have cooler than normal days, and may not be “hot”. This outlook only suggests that after the three months are over, those areas in the “warmer than normal” region are more likely to have experienced warmer than normal average temperatures.

Precipitation Outlook

  • What does GREEN mean on the map? The green shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “wetter than normal”, than “normal”, or “drier than normal”.
  • What does BROWN mean on the map? The brown shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “drier than normal”, than “normal”, or “wetter than normal”.
  • WHITE indicates areas that have a higher probability of being “normal” than “drier or wetter than normal” and also, areas where the chances for being drier than normal, wetter than normal, and normal are equal.

It should be noted that areas in the “wetter than normal” region may still have drier than normal days, and may not be “flooded”. This outlook only suggests that after the three months are over, those areas in the “wetter than normal” region are more likely to have experienced wetter than normal average rainfall.

High Resolution Global Seasonal Outlook Graphics for Science On a Sphere®

Background and References:
Starting in April 2017, the IRI probabilistic seasonal climate forecast product is based on a re-calibration of model output from the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s North American Multi-Model Ensemble Project (NMME). This includes the  ensemble seasonal prediction systems of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environment and Climate Change Canada, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NASA, NCAR and COLA/University of Miami. The output from each NMME model is re-calibrated prior to multi-model ensembling to form reliable probability forecasts. The forecasts are now presented on a 1-degree latitude-longitude grid.
IRI Seasonal Forecasts, http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=944&PageID=0&cached=true&mode=2&userID=2
Credits:
EarthNow Team
NOAA
Category: Global Seasonal Outlook

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Winter 2018-2019 Climate Digest

The December 2018 to February 2019 average temperature across the global land and ocean surface was the fourth highest since records began in 1880. Averaged as a whole, the temperature for meteorological winter was 0.84°C (1.51°F) above the 20th century average.

The global ocean-only temperature was the second highest on record.

In spite of an extreme Arctic blast in late January, the United States had a warmer than normal winter during December through February, with southeast states much warmer than normal.

Meanwhile the winter precipitation total was more than 2 inches above average, making this past winter the wettest winter on record for the contiguous United States.

To better understand our wet winter, this climate digest includes a 3-month display of “total precipitable water” (TPW) measured by polar-orbiting satellites, revealing moisture plumes in our atmosphere. Several atmospheric rivers can be seen flowing onto the U.S. west coast. Not surprisingly, California experienced record rains and above normal snowpack in the mountains. The good news is that California has been declared drought-free for the first time since December 2011! The bad news involved flooding along California’s Russian River, which crested at its highest level since 1995.

Record rainfall also resulted in flooding along the Mississippi River and Tennessee Valley this past winter.

In addition, multiple snowfall records were set in northern states from Washington to Wisconsin. In Eau Claire Wisconsin, February 2019 set an all-time record for the snowiest of any month on record, surpassing the previous record by more than 21 inches!

While watching the TPW loop look for 2 tropical cyclones swirling on either side of the equator near Australia. They are Typhoon Wutip spinning counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and Tropical Storm Oma spinning clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere, opposite rotations due to the Coriolis effect.

The quarterly climate digest, produced seasonally, consists of a short movie (4:21 minutes) made for Science On a Sphere® (SOS) and an MP4 video accessible through YouTube.

You can download the SOS content from this FTP Site.

Content includes:
– Global 3-month averaged temperatures
– 3-month Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies (showing El Niño conditions)
– 3-month Total Precipatable Water (TPW) imagery

References:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201903
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201903
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/

Credits:
EarthNow Team
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)

Monthly state of the climate reports are available from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Climate Global Analysis and National Overview at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

 

Category: Uncategorized

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Autumn 2018 Climate Digest

Averaged as a whole, the global land and ocean surface temperature for September–November 2018 was 1.44°F (0.80°C) above the 20th century average—the second warmest in our 139-year record.

The global ocean-only surface temperature was also the second highest for September–November.

In the United States, the average temperature for the Lower 48 was very near normal. However, the autumn precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 9.61 inches, which is 2.73 inch above the long-term average. This placed us at the second wettest autumn on record, in large part due to heavy rains associated with Hurricanes Florence and Michael.

Hurricane Florence was a long-lived tropical cyclone that brought devastating flooding to the Carolinas in September. Florence moved extremely slowly after making landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina on September 14th, which caused a prolonged storm surge event along the coast and extremely high rainfall totals. Numerous locations observed over 30 inches of precipitation from the storm causing rivers to crest at all-time high levels. The highest rainfall was measured near Elizabethtown, NC with a total of 35.93 inches. Adding to the havoc, 34 tornadoes were spawned as Florence moved inland. There were at least 51 fatalities blamed on the storm and damages are expected to easily exceed $1 billion.

Hurricane Michael was a major October hurricane that approached the U.S. from the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall on the Florida panhandle on October 10th.  According to pressure measurements, Michael was the third most intense hurricane to make landfall in the United States and fourth most intense based on wind speed. There were at least 60 fatalities blamed on Hurricane Michael and damages are also expected to be well over $1 billion.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially concluded on November 30th.

The quarterly climate digest, produced seasonally, consists of a short movie (5:07 minutes) made for Science On a Sphere® (SOS) and an MP4 video accessible through YouTube.

You can download the SOS content from this FTP Site.

Content includes:
– Global 3-month averaged temperatures
– 3-month Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies
– 6-day animation of Hurricane Florence, including landfall
– GOES-16 30-second imagery of Hurricane Michael landfall

References:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201809
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201810
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201809
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201810
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201811
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201811

 

 

Credits:
EarthNow Team
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)

Monthly state of the climate reports are available from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Climate Global Analysis and National Overview at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

 

Category: Climate Digest

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